Matriculating to Glory: A Prelude

Here is a guest post from Nick Bonafucci and hopefully the KCBeerBlog community can convince him to become a regular blogger for us. It is an excellent read with great incite into the game this Sunday. GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!

Cheers,
Brett A. Myces

I’ve lived a charmed life. I have a happy, healthy family, a challenging and rewarding job, a secure financial picture, and some awesome friends. I own a nice home in a first world country in the most prosperous and free epoch of human history. On the surface, things are peachy. But the world is not a peachy place. Indiscriminate violence, disease, environmental destruction, and political carnage plague civilization. What is one to do when presented with the news of the day but either bury his/her head in the sands of oblivion, or soak everything in and descend into despair at the terrifying future of hypersonic missiles and electromagnetic pulses. Financial institutions and electric grids and governmental operations are increasingly online, automated, interconnected, and hackable. I suppose ignorance truly is bliss.

The world has always been a scary place, of course, and humankind has always searched for diversion, however temporary, when feeling helpless or hopeless. Sport has a tremendous capacity to fill the void here. Strangely, even crappy athletic teams and figures provide great distraction from the depressing muddle of everyday life. How despondent would Clevelanders be without their beloved Browns, who suck at football and will clearly always suck at football. Yet the Muni lot remains a cauldron of hope, joy, and positivity, at least until kickoff each Sunday.

Too often I feel caught in the muddle, like I’m simply going through the motions while time marches forward, as if I’m not making the progress I should be making towards a more meaningful life. It can seem like I’m not finding optimal purpose or living my fullest life if I’m not achieving goals or accomplishing things; it’s probably silly to feel this way as a productive member of society, yet the sentiment still creeps into my consciousness.

Football, while a trivial game featuring burly men fighting over a pigskin on the surface, is incredibly meaningful to me. I’ve never played on any substantial level, yet I spend colossal amounts of time watching, analyzing, wagering, guessing spreads, selecting fantasy teams, and otherwise obsessing over the sport. It may not provide some deep Socratic meaning, and it obviously can’t match the meaning of doing good for others or raising considerate, generous children, but it lightens my spirit nonetheless. Football requires immense skill, effort, teamwork, and strategy from a large group of individuals, and I find it endlessly captivating. And if I found a Romeo Crennel/Matt Cassel 2-14 season captivating, you can imagine what Andrew Reid and Patrick Lavon Mahomes II have done for my psyche over the last two years. Sport, and the drive to excel, can absolutely give purpose and motivation not just to those playing and coaching, but to those following along casually (or way more than casually) at home.

Watching Patrick Mahomes sling a football is one of the purest joys of my life. He is a wholly likeable, personable, grounded superstar. He comes with no baggage, and cares not how people perceive him, to the point of admitting to slathering steaks with ketchup. He has taken on the responsibility of serving as a community leader and role model at an age when most men still struggle with maturity, and he is quick to deflect praise to his teammates and coaches. He credits his meteoric rise in the NFL largely to being surrounded by great people. And come Sunday he may just cap off the greatest start to a quarterback’s career in NFL history.

Where do Showtime’s first two full seasons as a starter rank historically? Let’s delve into some stats! There’s no better place to start than the fact that Mahomes has led the Chiefs to consecutive conference championship games in his first two effective starting seasons (he backed up Alex Smith for 15 out of 16 games as a rookie), a feat only matched in the modern era by Dan Marino. Kurt Warner made two in his first three years, as did Tom Brady (as well as three of four, five of seven, and 13 of 18. Yeesh). Should he guide Kansas City to victory in Miami, Mahomes would become the second youngest quarterback to win the big one (Ben Roethlisberger, SB XL).

Mahomes has now started 35 games over his first three seasons, including playoffs. For this exercise I’m going to throw out the one start he made during week 17 of his rookie season, a meaningless contest for both the Chiefs and the Denver Broncos. I’m also throwing out week 7 of this season, the night all of Kansas City held its breath as he exited early with a dislocated kneecap. In the remaining 33 starts of his career, Showtime has averaged a shade over 310 yards per game and around 2.6 touchdown passes per game. These are career apex numbers for most any other mortal quarterback. In fact, only seven quarterbacks have topped Mahomes’ effective career yardage average over the course of a single season: Drew Brees five times (at ages 29, 32, 33, 34, 37), Matt Stafford twice (23, 24), Peyton Manning once (37), Tom Brady once (34), Ben Roethlisberger once (36), Jameis Winston once (25), and Dan Marino once (22). Only five quarterbacks have surpassed his effective career passing TD average over the course of a single campaign: Drew Brees twice (ages 32,33), Peyton Manning twice (28,37), Dan Marino twice (22, 24), Tom Brady once (30), and Aaron Rodgers once (27). Let that sink in.

Mahomes has yet to peak (we hope), and his effective career statistical averages are better than the greatest seasons of all but a handful of quarterbacks. And 20-25% of his games have been played with somewhat limited mobility due to ankle and knee injuries. If he stays healthy and consistently puts up 80% of his production to date, he’ll shatter most meaningful passing records by the age of 35. I’ll throw in the obligatory caveat that it’s hard to compare different eras statistically and we’re obviously neck-deep in an exceedingly offensive, pass-happy era. I’ll also throw in the sub-caveat that Dan Marino threw for 5,084 yards and 48 touchdowns in 1984.

The leaders in all-time career passer rating are Aaron Rodgers (102.4), Russell Wilson (101.2), and Drew Brees (98.4). Mahomes does not qualify for most official career leaderboards since he still doesn’t have enough passing attempts, but he currently holds a regular-season passer rating of 108.9; this number is markedly higher if we include playoff games. Of the greatest seasons in history by passer rating, both of Mahomes’ rank in the top 45. As for ESPN’s total QBR stat, Mahomes finished first last season and second to Lamar Jackson this year. Echoing Pro Football Focus’ sentiment regarding how hot Mahomes is (keep reading), his playoff QBR of 95.5 this postseason (100-point scale) is easily the best in the history of the stat. Second best postseason this century? Colin Kaepernick in 2012 at 91.2. Best regular season QBR? Tom Brady’s undefeated 2007 at 87.0. And he’s only getting better. What is this kid’s ceiling? Does he even have a ceiling?

It’s not just the gaudy throwing numbers that impress. His interception rate is excellent, and he can run the ball about as well as Russell Wilson. His scrambling first downs are rarely designed, but always timely. On one hand, he’s an absolute showstopper who’s capable of buying time until he can secure the coziest of Kelce or Hill throwing windows. On the other hand, he is the essence of cerebral, continuously analyzing as he feels out a defense and rolls through progressions. The variable, often unorthodox footwork and arm slots he utilizes allows for a quick release at any trajectory at any time. And he almost always makes the correct decision, even if that’s throwing the ball away. Mahomes equals fun on a football field, and I am smitten. He’s absolutely never out of a game (as the last two playoff games have emphasized), and his play is clearly the main reason the Chiefs are favorites to return home with their first Lombardi since Tricky Dick prowled the White House grounds.

This postseason Showtime has been especially locked in, notching an 8/0 TD/INT ratio and garnering this high praise from Pro Football Focus: “Patrick Mahomes might be on the verge of playing the best postseason we’ve ever seen...In the AFC title game, he didn't register one negatively graded throw, and his overall PFF grade through the first two postseason games is a whopping 95.7 — easily the highest among the twelve playoff quarterbacks…[Displayed here is] a simple scatterplot that shows the raw PFF grade on dropbacks and the expected points added (EPA) per pass play for all quarterbacks who played at least two games in a given postseason.

The labeled seasons are either top 10 in terms of PFF grade or EPA/play or both. Mahomes has so far clearly separated from the pack, registering the best postseason in terms of EPA per play (despite suffering from multiple drops on 3rd down), and his grade trails only Matt Ryan’s vastly underrated 2012 playoff run.” Ah yes, that Matt Ryan run that nobody remembers since it ended shy of the Super Bowl. Poor, underachieving Falcons. I digress.

Mahomes is indeed feeling it. The man is playing nearly flawless football, and oozing confidence. The obvious disadvantage to deferring possession to the second half after winning the coin flip is the opponent can jump out to a double digit lead while only stopping you once. Despite this exact scenario playing out during the last two playoff games, there was no panic from Mahomes (Chiefs fans were a different story), no diversion from the plan, and ultimately no doubt in the offense’s ability to figure it out. Because that’s all Mahomes and Reid have done their first two campaigns. You may slow them down for a quarter or a half, but they always figure you out. Always. Even against the Patriots in the AFC title game last year, after the Chiefs were stymied in a frustrating first half, their second half possessions went TD, Punt, TD, Punt, TD, TD, FG. They simply ran out of time, and lost a coin flip. There’s always something exploitable for an offense of this caliber, and Reid knows how to target it. I have to think Mahomes and Reid huddling together on the bench after seemingly every possession has played an instrumental role in implementing game plan adjustments on the fly, based on what the defense is showing them.

The duo makes for a veritable dream team of sorts, featuring the perfect blend of big-time coaching experience, offensive innovation, pure arm talent, athleticism, and proprioceptive instinct. The Chiefs also employ a strong, healthy offensive line, and feature the legion of zoom; Sammy Watkins (4.43 second 40-yard dash), Mecole Hardman (4.33), and Tyreek Hill (4.28!) create matchup nightmares in single coverage, and are creatively deployed on routes to set up Travis Kelce over the middle or the screen game underneath. Mahomes is going to get his. The best chance for the explosive San Francisco front to disrupt the Chiefs game plan may be to attack the interior offensive line, as Mitchell Schwartz has been playing like the all-pro that he is and Eric Fisher isn’t too far behind. But even if the 49ers are in the backfield all night, broken plays are often when Mahomes excels, as he’s able to either scramble to buy time or quickly identify the best matchup and loft the ball off his back foot in a way that his receivers can run underneath it. Mahomes has been sacked just 19 times in 15 games this season, and will not be pressured into mistakes; a few sacks on Sunday may simply reduce a 42-point output to a 34-point output.

Standing in the way of Chiefs Kingdom glory is the dominant outside zone rushing attack of the 49ers, as well as their horde of defensive game-wreckers. Are the parallels between this year’s 49ers and last year’s NFC champion Rams worth pointing out here? Both were 13-3 schematically advanced offensive juggernauts featuring young quarterbacks trying to shed the “game-manager” moniker. Both were ranked second in total scoring offense on the season, and both are/were coached by offense-oriented wunderkinds who initially developed their chops with the legendary Redskins powerhouses of the early 2010s. In fact, they served as successive offensive coordinators in Washington. Kyle Shanahan called plays from 2010-2013 before moving on to brief stints with Cleveland and Atlanta (Super Bowl VI fiasco), while Sean McVay held the reigns under Jay Gruden from 2014-2016. Both were promoted to their head coaching spots in 2017 and immediately revitalized the NFC West offenses they assumed, though Shanahan certainly had hiccups last year with Jimmy Garoppolo’s ACL injury, and McVay had issues of his own this year with Jared Goff’s reversion to a yippy pumpkin. Both squads are/were underdogs of less than a field goal to teams with the two greatest coaches of this century in Belichick and Reid (though one has much more playoff success to show for it) and all-time talents at quarterback. And both NFC Super Bowl berths are/were clearly due more to the tactical advantages created by coaching (personnel packages, pre-snap motion, and raw playcalling skill) than to the actual talent of their offensive playmakers. This isn’t a knock on Goff or Garoppolo, but they’re not sniffing the Divisional Round with Jeff Fisher and Jim Tomsula at the helm. Will this year’s Super Bowl storyline repeat that of last season, one in which Goff and McVay were snuffed out by more experienced foes (Mahomes certainly plays like a veteran at this point)?

I’m thinking not. For one, Kyle Shanahan has been sensational as a play-caller throughout his career (even in “down” years), and he has been here before. As Falcons offensive coordinator, he and Matt Ryan rocketed to a 28-3 lead over the Patriots in Super Bowl LI. Bad things may have happened after that, but lessons were learned. The man exudes swag, and his team follows the lead. He has implemented the most impressive pure rushing attack without utilizing the quarterback of the last several years. The Vikings knew rush was coming, and got pounded. The Packers knew rush was coming, and got pounded. I’m not going to claim to know all the ins and outs of the offense, but they feature a tremendous blocking line, three interchangeable elusive backs, more pre-snap motion than any other NFL team, and two key players that offer them formational and functional multiplicity: Kyle Juszczyk and George Kittle. Juszczyk can line up anywhere in the backfield, or even out wide, while Kittle serves as the greatest playmaking tight end in the NFL when they pass it and the greatest blocking tight end when they run it. They continuously put a defense on its heels with pre-snap formation adjustments, and can take away opportunities for the defense to substitute since they can derive so much versatility from a single personnel package (often two backs and one tight end). Worryingly for Chiefs fans, they haven’t even had to open up the passing playbook in the last month. Shanahan has to have some creative looks up his sleeve (probably featuring lots of Kittle); he simply hasn’t been forced to play all his cards since the run game has been steamrolling. 

Much like the Chiefs offense, I see the Niners being incredibly effective at executing what they do best. George Kittle could wreck the Chiefs linebacking corps with yardage after the catch, Emmanuel Sanders is no slouch, and Deebo Samuel has been a rookie revelation. Points, points, and more points. I’d be inclined to take the over if it were 63 (it’s sitting at 54.5). This will sound cliché, but mistakes and red zone conversion rate (spicy nugget: the 49ers red zone pass defense is not very good) will determine the outcome. This game should be really fun. Here’s to Jimmy G tossing that one crucial pick.

This week we were again reminded in a big way that life is fleeting, and precious, and it’s unfortunate that it takes a senseless loss for some to reflect and recalibrate. Football careers too are fleeting; their brevity means these men carry with them weighty hopes and aspirations for perhaps just a few years. They carry their own hopes, those of on-field success, sustained health, a big contract, and notoriety. They carry the hopes of their families, those of a secure future. And they carry the hopes of their respective fanbases, those of winning championships, witnessing thrilling battles, and simply being temporarily diverted from worrying about beach beer-flavored superviruses. Patrick Mahomes II is our special diversion, and he is to be embraced and treasured for as long as we have him in our collective footballing conscience.

Carpe Diem. Go Chiefs.